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Ichi the Killer

Bursa Malaysia stock trading portfolio of nobody really important.

Friday, June 30, 2006

EOD Update (30 June 2006)

Oilcorp made another strong move, closing up a further 18c at its day high of 1.63. As I've mentioned several times earlier, I was convinced the 1st round of "operations" was disrupted by the weak market sentiment arising from US and regional market weaknesses that occurred in May and that consequently, there would be a second round.

However, I reduced my position first by throwing out 17,000 shares at 1.15 and 1.17, thinking to buy again at lower prices. Unfortunately, I did not do so even when it went as low as 0.92 shortly thereafter. Then when it started climbing again, I hesitated to rebuild my position, as I was unsure whether it was really time yet. In hindsight (which is always easier), I should have stuck to my original strategy and started rebuilding slowly the moment it started dipping below 1.00. So what if I didn't get it all at the bottom? I would still have saved substantial money by selling some first and buying back lower later, compared to holding throughout. The important thing is to remember the original strategy and stick to it.

The second mistake was that a later addition of 5,000 shares at 1.38 was sold a few days later for minimal gain, as I was thinking it would "break short-term support" and wanted to trade the ranges. This reinforces my opinion that, if you have a certain conviction, just stick with it until the whole thing plays itself out. In the long run, big money is seldom made trading in and out of a stock every few days, unless you're a clairvoyant or extremely talented (which I'm not). Anyway, I see a possible rise for OILCORP to the recently hit 1.80 and maybe, even 2.00 levels.

Meanwhile, ASIATIC is showing some early promise after I increased my position slightly (2nd round), hitting 3.10 today. I may increase my position a bit more soon. GPACKET seems to be on the move again with a marked uptrend and I'm waiting for the day (hopefully soon) when it'll hit 3.00. Things should really start going then...

In the meantime, while many are hailing the return of the bull, I still remain worried about conditions over in the US. I have a nagging feeling there's still more pain to come.

Latest purchase:

CYMAO: +5,000 (1.05) ... Total 5,000


/ichithekiller

Wednesday, June 28, 2006

EOD Update (28 June 2006)

Latest purchase:

MRCB: +10,000 (0.775) ... Total 10,000 (false rally)

Latest disposal:

POLYTWR: -2,000 (1.01), 3,000 (1.03) ... Balance 0 (time stop hit)


/ichithekiller

Monday, June 26, 2006

Mid-Day Update (26 June 2006)

Testing, testing ...

Latest purchase:

ASIATIC: +1,000 (3.02) ... Total 2,500


/ichithekiller

Thursday, June 22, 2006

EOD Update (22 June 2006)

Latest purchase:

CANONE: +3,000 (1.04), +5,000 (1.05) ... Total 8,000

Latest disposals:

TIME: -3,000 (0.625), -2,000 (0.63) ... Balance 5,000 (Came down again from 0.665, better cut down first)

OILCORP: -5,000 (1.43) ... Balance 9,000

IJM-WB: -5,000 (0.935) ... Balance 20,000

POLYTWR: -3,000 (0.925), -2,000 (0.965) ... Balance 5,000


/ichithekiller

Wednesday, June 21, 2006

EOD Update (21 June 2006)

I went ahead and made some short-term trades, despite what I said yesterday. What the heck...

Latest purchases:

IJM-WB: +5,000 (0.835) ... Total 25,000

TIME: +10,000 (0.61) ... Total 10,000

RHB: +10,000 (1.11) ... Total 10,000

POLYTWR: +10,000 (0.865) ... Total 10,000

OILCORP: +5,000 (1.38) ... Total 14,000 (Should have rebuilt position below 1.00)


/ichithekiller

Tuesday, June 20, 2006

EOD Update (20 June 2006)

In a bit of a quandary now. One one hand, several stocks on Bursa have come down to pretty attractive levels. On the other hand, we all know that any big drop in the US (followed by European and Asian) markets will have a similar negative effect on Bursa Malaysia stocks.

So to buy now would mean sleepless nights wondering whether the DJIA has crashed (or is crashing). To not buy may mean missing a Bursa rally, assuming the US Fed manages to keep things on an even keel. The thing is, I have this nagging feeling that the US markets have not really fallen enough yet, that inflation will continue to be a problem and that the dollar will continue to depreciate. Couple this with falling real estate prices and rising mortgage and consumer credit defaults and the nagging feeling gets even stronger. So what to do? The right thing to do is probably to tread lightly and pick sectors which will be less hit by a US economic slowdown and may even be helped by a falling dollar. It might mean missing rallies in some other stocks, but in the long run, it's probably a safer bet.

Latest purchase:

MUHIBAH: +5,000 (1.41) ... Total 10,000


/ichithekiller

Saturday, June 17, 2006

EOD Update (16 June 2006)

Rebound in some GLC counters... need more confirmation first. Haven't had time to study the market, so am just queueing and buying slowly. I really wish the market would take a HUGE plunge and form a real bottom, rather than drift up and down listlessly... come on... tank, tank, tank!!

Latest purchases:

TIMWELL: +2,000 (1.72) ... Total 12,000

MUHIBAH: +5,000 (1.38) ... Total 5,000 (Back in slowly for 2nd time after dumping all at 1.58)


/ichithekiller

Thursday, June 08, 2006

EOD Update (8 June 2006)

Took a hard look at some of the losers in my portfolio. Decided to cut out some of them. Times like these are the best to realign one's portfolio. With so many good counters declining to good values recently, now is the time to take cash out of the "dogs" and prepare for some bargain-hunting. Some might say I'm selling out near the bottom. Sure, these losers may rebound if the general market picks up, but I doubt the rebound would be faster and stronger than for other "better" stocks which have been dragged down as well. If you look at it objectively, there is no reason to stay with the losers at a time like this when bargains galore. Most investors would wait and hope to get out even first, which to me, is a psychological handicap. Everyone makes mistakes. You make your money back riding the stocks which will move the fastest when the bad times are over. You don't have to make your money back the same way you lost it (can't remember who said this).

Getting rid of the losers also forced me to realise something. In some instances, I had lost up to 40% of the purchase price on some of them. There is simply no excuse for such stupidity, especially when I wasn't even that hot on their fundamentals in the first place. Thank goodness, I only had small positions in them. I've now realised that I tend to lose a lot in smaller positions. Most likely this arises from a sense of apathy when faced with small initial losses, since the positions are small. The result is each loss then starts getting bigger and bigger, until it becomes a big dollar (ringgit) amount, translating to something like a 40% loss. So, the lesson for myself is to treat all positions the same. Big or small, when things go wrong ... zap!

Latest purchase:

TAMCORP: +8,000 (0.25) ... Total 40,000

Latest disposals:

FOCUS: -5,000 (0.27) ... Balance 15,000

FONICS: -10,000 (0.19) ... Balance 0

DCIB: -10,000 (0.28) ... Balance 5,000

MIDF: -3,000 (1.07) ... Balance 3,000 (this is not a loser, more of a laggard)

SUNRISE: -4,000 (1.60) ... Balance 0 (this is not a loser, am just protecting profit)


/ichithekiller

Friday, June 02, 2006

EOD Update (2 June 2006)

Have not updated for a while (except mentioning trades in the Cbox). Partly due to work demands recently and also partly due to my drastically reduced trading activity, since the market has been quite unpredictable. Also, have been trying to figure out whether Bursa Malaysia is on a serious and prolonged downtrend now or just experiencing a temporary hiccup due to external factors. If you look back at my previous posts, you will see that I have been largely unloading stocks since I first said on 4th May that I was going to take a break.

Conclusion is that it's not the end-of-the-world for us and though there will be increased volatility, I think there are still gains to be made buying slowly now for the medium-term. Many would say I'm suicidal, but as long as US markets don't suffer a monumental collapse, I think there is opportunity to slowly pick up some stocks that are showing even better value than before the recent slides. Of course, momentum traders and those with extremely tight cut loss limits should continue to stay on the sidelines for now, because there will be volatility.

Although I've been busy and have not had time to really look at individual stocks closely, I tried to daytrade on UEMWRLD & UEMBLDR the other day (experiencing withdrawal symptoms). The result left me firmly convinced that although one should be open to discovering other possibly nifty trading techniques, it's probably better in the long run to stick to those you're familiar with and have proven to work for you.

Regarding OILCORP, I believe my original reasoning for going back in AGAIN still holds but due to weak overall market sentiment, there is no convincing reason to believe that anything will happen soon. With attention shifting to the coming World Cup, it will probably have a downside bias, so I have decided to reduce my position in it as a measure of risk control, as well as to try to pick up some again later at (hopefully) better prices.

Latest disposals (since last post):

UEMBLDR: -10,000 (1.22) ... Balance 0 (Sold from much earlier purchase at 1.02)

OILCORP: -13,000 (1.15), -2,000 (1.17) ... Balance 9,000

Daytrade:

UEMWRLD: Buy: +10,000 (1.85) / Sell: -1,000 (1.88), -1,000 (1.87), -8,000 (1.80) ... Balance 0

UEMBLDR: Buy: +10,000 (1.21), +5,000 (1.22) / Sell: -1,000 (1.22), -2,000 (1.23), -3,000 (1.18), -4,000 (1.19) ... Balance 5,000

What a disastrous outing.

From next week, I will be re-focusing on the market and hopefully, picking up selected stocks again.


/ichithekiller