ICAP

ICAP latest NAV spiked to 1.13, as reported today. It's performance since launch has been pretty impressive, bearing in mind it's probably not able to invest in speculative stocks.

I consider my ICAP holdings a long-term "investment" and not part of my trading portfolio. Actually, it's more like "sub-contracting" a portion of my funds to a 3rd party manager, on the assumption that it will generate above market returns at far lower risk than I would take on under active trading. Naturally, with higher risk on the active trading side, I would target higher returns than the ICAP "investment", but so far ICAP has done better than any of my unit trusts.

iCapital has rated ICAP twice previously from "Buy below 1.10" to "Buy below 1.15". With the current NAV, I expect they will re-rate to "Buy below 1.20" soon. Seems funny why iCapital rates ICAP at all though, since they're related and independence would be questioned.

Anyway, it's worth considering for anyone willing to relieve some of the stress and "sub-contract" a portion of funds out to a professional manager. But it should be held long-term to fully realise its potential (magic of compounding), unless its price shoots up to ridiculously high levels or one needs the funds urgently for something else.

/ichithekiller

EOD Update (30 Mar 2006)

Wow... XIANLNG Q4 earnings released today really koyak. I mentioned on 20 March, 2006 it was funny that OSK thought it would be a beneficiary under the 9MP. Clearly any agro-related measures under the 9MP would be focused on spurring the nation's food self-sustenance efforts, whereas XIANLNG is a breeder of ornamental fish! After the OSK recommendation, the stock price nevertheless began inching up, but with this quarterly result, I think OSK clients will certainly be very "happy" tomorrow...

Despite HIAPTEK's poor quarterly results (which caused me to dump all my HIAPTEK shares), it didn't really go down much today... strange market, this. Investors must be really banking on the 9MP benefitting it.

Latest purchases:

IJM-WB: +5,000 (0.715) ... Total 10,000

YLI: +5,000 (2.14) ... Total 5,000

LKT: +1,000 (2.96) ... Total 4,000

OILCORP: +1,000 (1.07) ... Total 11,000

Latest disposals:

NOVAMSC: -15,000 (0.145) ... Balance 0 (win some lose some, probably cross 0.20 tomorrow)


/ichithekiller

Lunch Update (30 Mar 2006)

IJM-WB hit 0.69 & bounced ... think pain is over for time being. I would be really surprised if IJM finished tomorrow below 5.15, so am going in cautiously...

Latest purchases:

IJM-WB: 5,000 (0.71) ... Total 5,000

NOVAMSC: +15,000 (0.175) ... Total 15,000 (looks well-supported at 0.17, so am re-instating partially)


/ichithekiller

Water Players

Many punters have been wondering why after construction stocks moved strongly, water pipe players also moved in anticipation of benefits under the 9MP, but till now none of the water concessionaires have seen any appreciable rally in their stock prices (mild rally for PUNCAK).

I think the effects of the 9MP proposals on players like RUBHD, TALIWRK & PUNCAK are still unclear at the moment. Perhaps the following column which came out today on www.osk188.com can offer some behind-the-scenes insight as to their relative share price under-performance.

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Water players upset over proposed bills
Water players are concerned over the tabling of two water bills in Parliament next month, arguing that the bills, if passed, would see their contracts renegotiated and that would jeopardise their financial position. The two bills are - the Water Services Industry Bill and the National Water Services Commission Bill. The effects of the bills would see the control of water resources, previously the domain of states in the peninsular, transferred to the Federal Government. (Star)

Mid-Morning Update (30 Mar 2006)

HIAPTEK turned in a lousy set of results ... swung from big profit last quarter to big loss. Reason given, depreciation and financing costs associated with new plant, but I suspect a lot has to do with margin squeeze.

Latest disposals:

HIAPTEK: -1,000 (0.77), -4,000 (0.75) ... Balance 0

NOVAMSC: -10,000 (0.175), -15,000 (0.17) ... Balance 0

INGENS: -15,000 (0.16) ... Balance 0


/ichithekiller

EOD Update (29 Mar 2006)

Mixed day today ... TIMECOM moved strongly to touch 0.755 before losing ground to close at 0.70...

NOVAMSC finally began moving after a long period of accumulation (up 87.5% today). Too bad I bought so little. Anyway, hope it continues. GHLSYS also starting to show some action. Elsewhere LIONDIV and LKT undergoing correction. Pretty normal, I wait for correction, nothing happens ... I buy, it starts going down. Just beautiful.

But the best of all was SYF today, dumped all 10,000 shares at 1.32 'cos nothing seemed to be happening and today it hits 1.54 ... this plus my recent IJM-WB decision "cost" me about RM8,000 in potential lost profits so far. Again, just beautiful ...

Latest purchases:

DGATE: +2,000 (1.60) ... Total 7,000

SYF: +2,000 (1.51) ... Total 2,000


/ichithekiller

EOD Update (28 Mar 2006)

MUHIBAH moving strongly ... MASTEEL also inching up. FABER, HIAPTEK & JAKS look like beginning upward moves again after short retracement.

Latest purchases:

MASTEEL: +6,000 (0.755) ... Total 6,000

NYLEX: +2,000 (0.90) ... Total 7,000

Latest disposals:

HIAPTEK: -5,000 (0.795), -5,000 (0.80) ... Balance 5,000


/ichithekiller

EOD Update (27 Mar 2006)

Latest purchases:

FOCUS: +5,000 (0.40) ... Total 20,000

NYLEX: +5,000 (0.90) ... Total 5,000

/ichithekiller

Mid-Day Update (27 Mar 2006)

LIONDIV on the move again ...

Latest purchases:

FOCUS: +10,000 (0.405), +5,000 (0.42) ... Total 15,000

MUHIBAH: +5,000 (0.965) ... Total 10,000

Latest disposal:

LIONDIV: -1,000 (4.40) ... Balance 6,000

/ichithekiller

EOD Update (24 Mar 2006)

As expected, DIGI has staged a strong recovery. Not only that, it has even surpassed its price immediately preceding the 3G crisis (this I did not expect to happen so quickly though). UMW also hit a new high largely on the strength of perceived advantages arising from the new NAP policies. Too bad I have so little of these 2 counters, but can't help it, their high stock prices make it difficult for me to purchase large amounts.

LIONDIV also hit a new high, closing at 4.18, largely on the strength of the rally in PRG shares over in Hong Kong, while GPACKET closed at 2.43, within striking distance again of its recent new high of 2.45 ...


Latest purchases:

LKT: +1,000 (3.20) ... Total 3,000

MAEMODE: +5,000 (0.99), +3,800 (1.02) ... Total 8,800 (very auspicious total)

TIMECOM: +5,000 (0.595) ... Total 15,000

Latest disposals:

UMW: -500 (7.70) ... Balance 500

DIGI: -500 (8.95) ... Balance 500


/ichithekiller

GPACKET & FIDELITY

DJ MARKET TALK: Green Packet +0.4%; Fidelity Ups Stake
24/03/2006 04:10:00 PM

1610 [Dow Jones] Green Packet (0082.KU) +0.4% at MYR2.37 after peaking at MYR2.38; filings indicate US-based Fidelity International has emerged as a substantial shareholder after acquiring 20.4 million shares, or a 5.5% stake, in early part of March. Trader says retail investors reading move to mean "there's value in this stock and further upside potential." Stock faces resistance at MYR2.45 (March peak). (VGB)

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A lot has been said about GPACKET in the past when its share price surged together with MTOUCHE and OSKVI. Many bloggers and forum participants called it a speculative stock with no fundamentals and the usual stories about syndicates, crooked promoters, etc. etc were thrown around.

Fidelity is the largest and one of the most respected mutual fund managers in the world, with USD1.4 TRILLION under management as at March 2006. Does the investment by Fidelity guarantee that GPACKET will go even higher? No one can say that for sure... but their track record speaks for itself. As far as I know, Fidelity is not a hedge fund which makes speculative short-term trades.

Does it mean GPACKET is a good company fundamentally? Again, despite many people saying it is a speculative counter, remember that it did make RM30 mil net in '05 and is virtually debt-free. Because the base technologies are in place, no substantial R&D expenditures are expected year-to-year, enabling it to generate huge margins.

I'm not saying all this because I'm holding GPACKET shares. Just an interesting thing to note for those who are more inclined to open up their minds, instead of merely listening to the general rhetoric of others who may not be familiar with the issue at hand. At the end of the day, everyone should exercise his/her own judgment.

/ichithekiller

EOD Update (23 Mar 2006)

Another tough day ... although CI went up, there seemed to be strong selling pressure across the Board, with 454 counters ending the day down.

Thought there was some major Invest Malaysia conference starting today, to convince foreign fund managers about our brilliant prospects and attractive valuations? How come the market is selling off instead? Strange this ... must not be succeeding.

Latest purchase:

LKT: +2,000 (3.20) ... Total 2,000 (Ha ha ... yes, it's LKT again, don't ask why...)

Latest disposals:

DIGI: -500 (8.85) ... Balance 1,000

MAEMODE-WA: -10,000 (0.41) ... Balance 0 (Too much overhead resistance, should have dumped the lot at 0.44 first)

IJM-WB: -5,000 (0.535), -10,000 (0.555) ... Balance 0 (Tired of up-down action)

NICORP: -30,000 (0.115) ... Balance 15,000 (Ouch! Wonder what's happening?)


/ichithekiller

EOD Update (22 Mar 2006)

Latest purchase:

MAEMODE-WA: +10,000 (0.39) ... Total 10,000

Latest disposals:

DIGI: -500 (8.85) ... Balance 1,500

OSKVI: -5,000 (1.96) ... Balance 0 (Too lazy to pick up & didn't want to increase total exposure)

/ichithekiller

EOD Update (21 Mar 2006)

Someone commented that all the stocks I have been buying recently are down, so why bother when market is so bearish?

After checking my positions, I tend to disagree (largely). On a net basis, recent buys like HIAPTEK (cost: 0.60, 0.73), JAKS (cost: 0.47), PRTASCO (cost: 0.87), GHLSYS (cost 0.195), MAHSING (cost: 1.82) and others like FABER (still net positive after later additions) are still above water.

Slightly down ones would be INGENS, ROHAS, JOTECH, IJM-WB and NEXTNAT. At the moment, I'm not really worried about these yet, expecially JOTECH, ROHAS and IJM-WB.

The really down one would be what I lost on LHH, but it's more than covered by gains (so far) from DIGI, not to mention KNM and LIONDIV. Still hovering around cost would be OSKVI and QL.

Of course, nobody knows what will happen tomorrow and I may be forced to sell certain counters. But if you check recent prices, many stocks in the first category above actually hit higher levels a few days ago or last week after I purchased them. If I remember correctly, HIAPTEK hit 0.79, MAHSING 1.95, PRTASCO 0.95(?) ... but I deliberately did not take profits this time, because I think there's still more to come and I didnt want to sell and risk missing out on the bigger moves later.

Anyway, DIGI still continuing to do well for now...

Latest disposals:

KNM: -1,000 (5.05) ... Balance 4,000 (Bonus issue announced)

LIONDIV: -1,000 (4.04) ... Balance 7,000

/ichithekiller

EOD Update (20 Mar 2006)

Another directionless day, at least for me ... GPACKET took a plunge before recovering slightly, after strong gains made over last Thursday & Friday ... wonder what's happening? Could someone be deliberately pushing the price down to a more attractive level since price-fixing date for the Proposed Private Placement is approaching?

Meanwhile, bird flu hit the news again, with expected effect on poultry stocks. What beautiful timing, just when I was trying to recover my money on LHH.

Elsewhere, HIAPTEK moving up again, while JAKS still listless...

I noticed XIANLNG has been moving up recently ever since OSK put it as a potential beneficiary under the 9MP, since the PM has been stressing on the importance of the nation's agri sector and achieving food self-sufficiency. I'm really puzzled, 'cos I always thought XIANLNG was a breeder of ORNAMENTAL FISH. So how is it that OSK thinks XIANLNG will benefit from any measures to spur FOOD self-sustenance? Am I missing something here? Does anyone know what's happening? If yes, please enlighten me and other equally clueless people... otherwise people buying in now may get suckered when realisation dawns.

Latest purchases (Friday, 17 Mar 2006):

NICORP: +25,000 (0.14) ... Total 45,000

OSKVI: +5,000 (1.99) ... Total 5,000

NEXTNAT: +5,000 (0.50) ... Total 5,000

(I really have to stop spreading over so many different counters...)


Latest disposals (Friday, 17 Mar 2006):

LHH: -4,000 (2.08) ... Balance 0 (End of sorry episode, for now)

IJM-WB: -5,000 (0.54) ... Balance 15,000

/ichithekiller


Note to self: Cut down number of counters!!

EOD Update (16 Mar 2006)

LHH took a nosedive ... I'm probably committing financial suicide but in view of last 2 quarters' earnings announcements, it's unbelievably cheap at current prices. Just can't bring myself to chop it off.

As anticipated, GPACKET finally made a strong move to 2.40 before settling down to close at 2.33 (up 16c for the day). Hope it's not another false breakout, too many of those already recently.

Latest purchases:

HIAPTEK: +5,000 (0.73) ... Total 15,000

LHH: +2,000 (2.17) ... Total 4,000 (Might still drop some more...)

QL: +3,000 (2.65) ... Total 3,000 (Finally pulled trigger after monitoring for a long time)


/ichithekiller

EOD Update (15 Mar 2006)

HIAPTEK and JAKS gave back most/all today's gains ... sickening.

Latest purchases:

ROHAS: +2,000 (1.01) ... Total 4,000

INGENS: +5,000 (0.175) ... Total 15,000


/ichithekiller

Mid-Day Update (15 Mar 2006)

Latest purchases:

INGENS: +10,000 (0.155) ... Total 10,000

ROHAS: +2,000 (1.04) ... Total 2,000

/ichithekiller

EOD Update (14 Mar 2006)

Too many failed rallies ...

Latest purchases:

FABER: +5,000 (0.46) ... Total 42,500 (false breakout again...)

GHLSYS: +20,000 (0.195) ... Total 20,000


/ichithekiller

EOD Update (13 Mar 2006)

LKT went on another killer surge today ... closed up 24c at 3.10 ...

JAKS, MAHSING & HIAPTEK up steadily ... TIMECOM & FABER also showing some strength, tho' gave back some gains towards close.

Latest purchases:

IJM-WB: +5,000 (0.52) ... Total 20,000

FABER: +5,000 (0.46) ... Total 37,500

NAMFATT: +10,000 (0.415) ... Total 25,000 (see close-off below)

Latest disposals:

NAMFATT: -10,000 (0.415) ... Balance 15,000

SYF: -10,000 (1.32) ... Balance 0 (Expected breakout didn't happen)

LKT: -1,000 (3.06) ... Balance 0 (Enough for now)


/ichithekiller

Lunch Update (13 Mar 2006)

Latest purchases:

SYF: +10,000 (1.33) ... Total 10,000

SPOLYMR: +6,000 (1.20), +5,000 (1.21) ... Total 25,000

IJM-WB: +5,000 (0.53) ... Total 15,000


/ichithekiller

EOD Update (10 Mar 2006)

Errr.....

Latest purchases:

SPOLYMR: +2,000 (1.21) ... Total 14,000 (strong last qtr, Supermx efforts taking shape...)

MAHSING: +5,000 (1.82) ... Total 5,000

Latest disposal:

LIONDIV: -1,000 (4.00) ... Balance 8,000

SUNRISE: -2,000 (1.70) ... Balance 4,000


/ichithekiller

Mid-Day Update (10 Mar 2006)

Market poised for another upward move? Can't tell for sure ... looks like a maybe...

Latest purchases:

PRTASCO: +10,000 (0.87) ... Total 10,000 (Thanks 9MP, I like this stock...for now...)

PLUS: +2,000 (2.74) ... Total 2,000 (Petrol price hike? No one will remember it in a month's time...)

/ichithekiller

EOD Update (9 Mar 2006)

So much to do, so little time ...

Latest purchases:

TIMECOM: +10,000 (0.63) ... Total 10,000 (Go ahead, laugh ...)

IJM-WB: +5,000 (0.51), +5,000 (0.535) ... Total 10,000 (Finally, time has come...)

JOTECH: +10,000 (0.565) ... Total 10,000

JAKS: +10,000 (0.47) ... Total 10,000

HIAPTEK: +10,000 (0.60) ... Total 10,000

/ichithekiller

Mid-Day Update (8 Mar 2006)

Latest purchase:

LIONDIV: +1,000 (3.72) ... Total 9,000

Latest disposals:

TIMECOM: -5,000 (0.545) ... Balance 0 (Blast ... got shaken out)

MUHIBAH: -5,000 (0.86) ... Balance 5,000


/ichithekiller

EOD Update (7 Mar 2006)

Another terrible day ... LHH continues slide, TIMECOM continues slide, SCOMIMR starts to slide (horribly), LKT gives back almost all today's gains.

I also seem to be breaking many of my own trading rules recently ... wonder how long before I lose my pants....

Latest purchase:

SAPCRES: +5,000 (0.71) ... Total 15,000

Latest disposal:

TIMECOM: -5,000 (0.56) ... Balance 5,000

/ichithekiller

EOD Update (3 Mar 2006)

Normally I don't like to put down long commentaries or opinions because laying down persuasive justifications may cloud others' personal judgments. But today, the unthinkable happened and a somewhat lengthier post is warranted.

In my mind, there was no doubt that DIGI would be the strongest contender for the 3G spectrum licence. The other slot would, I thought, naturally go to TIMECOM because well, ... it's a GLC. Which is why I put my bet on TIMECOM. What in the world did MiTV have? Hell, it couldn't even make a decently operable set-top box for its pay-TV offering (or write a proper intelligible manual to go with it).

Not even for a moment did I think DIGI would lose out to MiTV. And this is exactly what happened. DIGI lost out to MiTV. DIGI did not lose out to TIMECOM, despite a lot of people slagging TIMECOM out there. TIMECOM was a given. Anyone who thought otherwise has obviously not lived in this part of the world over the last 20 years. DIGI lost out to MiTV and that's the fact of the matter. At least, with a GLC one can argue that if it goes under, ultimately it's the taxpayers' money, but what's the angle on MiTV vs DIGI? This type of unanswerable question will not send the right signal to foreign investors.

But what I also can't understand is the massive sell-down that DIGI experienced. DIGI had 2 recent quarters of earnings growth which were remarkable by most standards. 3G didn't have a hand in producing that. At prices approaching RM9.00 per share, some people (research analysts included) were suggesting it was worth around RM10.00 in the near term, based solely on its fundamentals.

So what's all the hoo-ha about its price dropping a buck? Those strong fundamentals justifying a strong BUY at 8.90 must surely be adamantium-solid now at 7.85! Isn't this a golden opportunity to load up more of this wonderful stock at fire-sale prices? Shouldn't hard-core DIGI "investors" be rubbing their hands in glee and rejoicing at this sure-fire bonanza handed to them on a silver platter? Then, why are we hearing otherwise?

By the way, so what if DIGI didn't get the 3G spectrum licence? Even TM and Maxis are openly saying they don't expect their 3G operations to be profitable until 3-4 years' time. There's just no content out there to drive user takeup. What's the use of having a spanking new 6-lane highway if everyone's still riding bicycles? You'll just be racking up the costs and no income in sight.

And who wants to watch TV on a 3x3 inch screen? Sure, if there's a blackout like in the TV ad, you can continue watching Liverpool v Man U on your mobile, but seriously, how often does this happen (I know, it's TNB, but still...)? Besides, other countries are already talking 3.5G and 4G! This kinda technology moves faster than the speed of sound. Let the lemmings blow their wad rolling out soon-to-be obsolete technology. DIGI will save a tonne of cash not having to PAY for the 3G spectrum and fund its roll-out, not to mention the inevitable earnings drag on its current operations over the next few years. They'll find a way to get around this...

So, what's the deal with TIMECOM now? If I were a conspiracy theorist, I would remember that SingTel had made several approaches to take up a strategic stake in TIMECOM before (this was years ago, prior to all this 3G hoo-ha). Then, they were rebuffed by the Govt, ostensibly for national interest reasons.

But now, perhaps times have changed and circumstances have changed, and TIMECOM needs all the help it can get. How? How to lure back the spurned suitor to do a deal that needs to be done at all cost and quickly (you can figure out the reasons yourself)? Simple, just give TIMECOM something "valuable", perhaps with oligopolistic attributes, something that would fetch TIMECOM a significant premium over its market share price ... like .... a 3G licence! Ha ha ... I gotta stop dreaming, must be getting late already ...

Latest purchases:

DIGI: +1,000 (7.95), +1,000 (8.10) ... Total 2,000 (Easy, slowly does it...)

Latest disposals:

TIMECOM: -5,000 (0.60), -5,000 (0.615), -5,000 (0.625) ... Balance 10,000

DGATE: -1,000 (1.68), -1,000 (1.71) ... Balance 5,000 (up 18c, no correction bfr today's strong move ...blast!)


/ichithekiller

Mid-Day Update (2 Mar 2006)

Latest disposals:

LIONDIV: -2,000 (4.00) ... Balance 8,000

KNM: -2,000 (4.74) ... Balance 5,000

UMW: -500 (7.00) ... Balance 1,000


/ichithekiller

Lunch Update (1 Mar 2006)

Every time the market stages a recovery, something comes along and whacks it down. This time it's the incredible fuel price hike announced yesterday. It's starting to look like the Govt really wants to test the market's resilience ...

Latest disposals:

ASIATIC: -1,000 (2.89) ... Balance 1,500

CAROTEC: -5,000 (0.685) ... Balance 11,000 (regret selling this, hope it pulls back)

MASTEEL: -10,000 (0.63), -9,000 (0.625) ... Balance 0 (result's out, disappointing for me, looks like recovery not clearly in sight yet, might still run-up on placement play tho', but am getting out for now)

/ichithekiller