NATBIO Update
NATBIO released 4th qtr and full year till Feb 2008 results today. Extracts and quick analysis:
4th qtr PAT: $11mil 2007/08 PAT: $39.9mil
Cash & FD: $69mil
(1) Cash & FD per share: $0.23
(2) Net cash (-LT & ST borrowings): $52.4mil
(3) Net cash per share: $0.175
(4) Closing price (29 April '08): $o.815
2007/08 EPS: $0.133 per share
Mkt px adjusted for (1) and (3): $0.585 --- $0.64
2007/08 trailing PE adj for (1) and (3): 4.39x --- 4.81x
2007/08 trailing PE (no cash adj): 6.12x
High level of earnings maintained steadily over last few quarters, with slight improvement even. This comes in face of mounting competition and considerable money spent on advertising & promotions (ie. high A&P expenses). Trying to grow exports aggressively (8 countries now, compared to 2 before. Gunning for another 3 this year). Major shareholders and directors buying shares aggressively end-2007 at much higher prices. Seem to have stopped as stock price keeps sliding no matter how good the earnings. However, don't see any selling either. Maybe just as puzzled as I am as to why market consistently gives it such a low valuation.
Ok, try to sort it through. Biggest challenge is undoubtedly competition. Flood of copycat products in the market now, from Old Town to Nescafe 3-in-1, to Aik Cheong to whatever Ah Kow & Ah Mau brand. Crunch is, how much longer can NATBIO keep spending and spending on A&P, especially compared to big boys like Nestle? Will have to bet on exports growing strongly, along with new choco and cereal products launched. Honestly, their canned energy drink tastes like s**t to me. Should put more R&D into it. Of $40mil of IPO proceeds meant for A&P, only $9.35mil used so far, so $30.6mil left... looks like can still tahan for a few more years.
End of the day, PE of 4.4 to 4.8x after adjusting for cash seems damn cheap. Ignore cash and PE rises to a still cheap 6.1x .... worth holding lah. Just declared 4c div, amounting to 4.9% yield based on today's close. Maybe PE low for a reason I don't know? Maybe lor...
/ichithekiller
posted by ichithekiller @ 6:00 PM
8 Comments:
Ichi,
Why wld u want to invest in a company where its product taste like shxt ?
keke
why would they continue to make good profit even tho their products taste like s**t?
are they joining the rest in the leagues of cooking up their books like the others?
enlighten me plssss.... gee... my balls are ichi la... :)
your old bud, wk aka tun
kekekkek
also.. which are the 8 countries they exporting their products to?
also, i think they r getting lazier until no time to update their website...
y put it up in the first place when they r not doing the maintenance...
Taste is a very personal thing... what tastes like s**t to me might taste like the best thing on earth to someone else. Also, looking at the sales and earnings should be the real test, right? If the sales and earnings are still there, that means there are enough people out there who like it, right? Anyway, I was just talking about the canned energy drink tasting like you-know-what. I love their Alicafe and Pearl Cafe coffee drinks.
Don't know which 8 countries wor... got this information from one of their quarterly releases.
Maybe they are not getting lazier until they don't bother to update their website... maybe they are just getting busier and busier bcos business is booming! Ke ke...
may be they r busy looking for ways to raise new capital. ke ke. what happend to the chatbox?
What happened to the chatbox? Nothing wat ... new format implemented by cbox provider. I think it's supposed to auto-refresh now...
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