Diversion

1. With all the excitement currently going on in Perak, the attention seems to have shifted away from stock market for the time being. In fact, I haven't even been doing any price monitoring since the CNY holidays started.

2. Right now, PR and its supporters are all waiting with bated breath, fearing that HRH the Sultan of Perak will not grant MB Nizar's request for a dissolution of the State Assembly.

3. In my honest unlearned opinion, it is a foregone conclusion that the MB's request for a dissolution will be granted, unless there are MORE crossovers to BN apart from the current 3 + 1 prodigal son. Why?

4. Because as the Ruler, HRH will want minimal disruptions to the day-to-day governing of his beloved State. Every change of government entails its own teething problems, which wastes precious time, such as when PR first took over from BN after March '08.

5. If the government were to change again now in less than 12 months, there are bound to be significant disruptions happening once again. One can bet that all the current state executive councillors would be given the boot and replaced, except maybe those who recently switched their allegiance. Most of the current plans would be thrown out the window and replaced with new plans. This is besides the point that MB Nizar seems to be proving himself to be quite popular.

6. Of course, just the above are not good enough reasons for HRH to maintain the status quo. But how many more disruptions would be acceptable? If HRH consented to this change (again), what guarantee could HRH have that this would be the last time, at least until the next GE?

7. To answer this question, we have to look at the individuals triggering this round of change. Of the four, 2 are currently facing corruption charges. This means that if they are convicted, they would have to vacate their seats. What is DPM going to tell HRH when he meets him tomorrow? Don't worry, I will make sure they are found not guilty? Of course not.

8. With these 2 on shaky ground as it is, another 1 is someone who seems to have no sense of conviction, no steadfastedness of purpose. One minute he leaves his party, spouting disparaging cirticisms, the next minute he is going back because he "has to make sacrifices". I am not kidding, these are his exact words. Making a sacrifice means doing something you are deeply against for the greater good. A closer analysis of his words, as HRH would certainly carry out, would indicate that he is really opposed to rejoining BN, but has no other choice due to his desire to first serve the needs of the rakyat.

9. If that is the case and he is truly acting against his inner will and desire, how then can HRH be confident that he will not change his mind again in the near future?

10. So out of the 4, it's 3 strikes so far ... with one more to go. I will reserve comment on the last one 'cos I really don't know what to say.

11. But, with 3 out of 4 in the shaky zone, it certainly looks unlikely that HRH will want to risk another debacle in the near future.

13. What more, if tens and hundreds of millions can be spent on "development" for each by-election, why not bring in a billion by calling for fresh state-wide elections? Surely this would be magnificient for Perak in such trying economic times?

12. That's why I think, if there are no additional crossovers happening after this, the State Assembly will be dissolved soon. Let's see if I'm right.


/ichithekiller